Depending upon if elections are rigged or not (a matter not in my hands) here is an assessment of what should possibly happen from what i was able to judge over last one year i.e the PUBLIC MOOD in pakistan . . .
I am not so sure how did this happen but i made this post on even Feb. 18 while making this post on KMB but a part of its text was delete (thanks to my doing-dead-now keyboard & triple click mouse) & i had to post it again. I am writing it now but i will post it quite late i think. I guess within few hours we may start getting some results so its best time to do some science on ELECTIONs. The following assessment is also shared by my dad with whom i had detail discussion. Lets see in detail . . .
Before we continue please keep in mind that the MEDIA, Pressure from International Community for free and fair elections and the awareness created by media will have a great impact even if the establishment resorts to its usual 2 numberi tactics.
I say this because the fact that this time the result will be announced at the very moment and that there is a very very slim chance of POST-POLL rigging the only thing MUSH baba can do to get his PLM-Q win is either before poll (in which he was quite susccessful in large gatherings by throwing money lavishly with all gov. resources in control ) or on poll day but the fact that there is a BIG PRESSURE mountain from international commmunity with thousand of media men in pakistan keeping a close eye, i am afraid doing 2 numberi on election day on a BIG scale may be diffitcult as well so we may well be a BIG JOLT for MUSH baba and his supporters.
Also keep in mind the statements given by Pervaiz Kiyani recently in which has tried to show that ARMY is neutral ( at least on polling day ) and will confine itself to security.
These three factors may stun people , a wild guess from my side. but frankly there are other factors as well which are not so wild. I list them one by one for readers.
[ The Assessment – Technical side ]
While its known to everyone to MUSH baba has to keep the WEST happy so PPP will get its due share but the problem is that the majority of people in Pakistan are fed up from MUSH bhai due to one reason or another and they have had enough of him (and his wardi men) for last 8 years now. Everyone remembers his promises and their status.
In SINDH its quite clear that PPP and MQM has to win but in PUNJAB the situation is quite complex. Here the recent Judicial crisis and mass rallies agaist gov. suggest that although the people are against MUSH, the events of LAL-MASJID and a series of crisis may force people to vote against MUSH but but but. . . here is the problem : in doing so they have two options i.e either PML-N or PPP. The problem with PPP is although it is a peoples party with strong roots its over-the-boundry approach in PRO-WEST statements may just force the people to vote against PML-Q but also against PPP which logically means voting for PML-N. This is also valid on theory on the fact that MMA is well divided and in fact JI is not contesting. But this all in no way means taking the credit away from the two brothers who ran an impressive campaign addressing the basic issues people wanted to hear especially their firm stance on JUDGES & full-attack on crisis issues like flour crisis, sugar crisis, electricity crisis and best of all THE INFLATION.
PPP and PML-N has with all the rigging tactics have run an impressive campaign in PUBJAB so it may just prove too much to digest for the Chaudhries of Gujrat. Pervez Needs a massive scale rigging ( quite difficult in the presence of a vigilant media & International Pressure) to take PML-Q on top.
In NWFP the situation is again interesting. If MMA would have participated as one unit i am sure the LAL-MASJID and anti-WEST feelings could have been directed in polls to secure good number of seats but this is not the case. Also we have seen the re-emerge of nationalist elements in NWFP & with an impressive election campaign by ANP you may never know the table be turned in NWFP too, again as i said MUSH baba needs a BIG MASSIVE SCALE drama to get his results. PPP is hard to get something here although i have no clue on the status of PPP sherpao group.
Balochistan is the unfortunate lost land in our country. Poor province is not only deprived of its right but also the fragmentation and segmentation of nationalist parties and religious parties + the normal PPP,PMLn,PMLq fighters we may see the independents playing some role. To be honest with you i rather stay away from commenting on Balochistan due to my limited knowledge in politics in that area in a detail and broader perspective.
MQM has had his candidates from different parts of the country as well but let me tell you that there is ZERO percent chance of it getting a share there mainly due to the prejudice other provinces has with it on A VERY VALID BASE i.e its militant mentality
which for now, seems no way to go. But in Karachi there is no way anyone else is taking the chunk of the votes. Also one should acknowledge that it has indeed done some large scale development in Karachi. It also has done partially well to show its soft side to public but that all came crashing on MAY 12. All i can say is, MQM has a long journey and some tough decisions to take if it really wants to be a NATIONAL party.
ALL in ALL i see anti-MUSH fever very strong in country except probably in KARACHI but thanks to MEDIA for building up the pressure which will make rigging just little more difficult this time.
By the way MUSH baba gave a comment two days back that he is confident PML-Q will win , if i am not wrong the does the constitution not require a president to be neutral but oh!! i forgot we live in a land where the constitution is castrated by the establishment.